Namath Calling Mangini Out?

In an On Air Response to question given to him in the Announcer’s Box about the product he sees on the field (where FAVRE had just thrown again into double coverage on third down and missed badly, getting hit HARD in the process), he deadpanned it, didn’t parse his words:

“It’s not just the QB (Favre). There is an overall-concept problem with this team.”

~

This is both funny and inspiring.  Joe Namath doesn’t give a damn.  He knows it just needs to be said.  Live, and on-air.  The insinuation is, “someone isn’t getting it”.  That’s coaching.  That’s design.  Overall-Concept is a direct jab at the frequent Mangini-ism of the “Whole System”.

Overall-Concept = System = Mangini

~

The question I have fot you is this:  does the flaw in the Overall-Concept extend also to Football Operations in the Front Office with the general management?  Or perhaps up to the ownership of the team?  Or is the flaw isolated?

I will be following up on this thread for the remainder of the year to see how trends develop.

The Big Question Right Now is Where Are Their Heads?

The Jets are rattled right now.  Universal deer in the headlights.  They are on a LONG plane ride home right now.

But how did this happen?  The Jets dissembled the core of their team, replacing two very popular players in the locker room in Pennington and Vilma – guys that were integral to the character and chemistry of the team.  The Jets cobbled together expensive spare parts from elsewhere, even if those parts are all-pros.  The team hasn’t had a lot of time to gel, and the arrival of Favre magnified the NY sports media spotlight.  The Jets believed they were in a win-now mode and building a competitive team.  It has become apparent that Favre has had a ton of trouble adjusting to the offense and in turn, the offense to him.  They are just so out of sync. Connected with that is the defense and ST.  The entire team has a ton of high profile and very different players.  Some holdovers like prideful holdovers like Coles, and many new faces like Faneca, Woody, Pace, Jenkins and Favre, just don’t seem to have any sort of gameday chemistry, and I only wonder what the locker room is like after these two losses.  Who is stepping up?  Who’s leading? Who’s the captain of this ship?  Favre is not the type.

Lombardi said that winning is contagious, and I’m afraid the losing this team has done of late also is contagious.  It bleeds over from week to week.  It has guys like Faneca and Favre second guess their decisions, and maybe just start looking paycheck to paycheck.

To top it off, the team really has no elder statesman to level the ship.  No one like Parcells…

Mangini doesn’t have the equity being so young to do it.

If you think, the Jets have looked totally out of whack since the 3rd or 4th quarter of the Miami game, with the major scare that came down to the last play.  Relief right?

Then, the Jets invested so much import into the Patriots game, came out and just played poor enough to let the Patriots dink and dunk their way to victory.  The Jets were emotionally spent, and devastated after that loss.  They bought into the hype, and a punk named Cassel popped the bubble.

Tonight was nothing short of a nationally televised flogging:  the Jets were beaten up physically and embarrassed operationally.  To add to the insult, there are injuries to the fulcrum on the defense, with Jenkins, and to Favre on offense.  Pulling him in the 4th may have had something to do with the injury in addition to the game being out of reach.

Coming out of this, I don’t know how they can do it.  They have been exposed as frauds.  Well-paid frauds.  Guys that don’t play crisp, watchable football.  They are playing like a 4-12 squad.  Or a squad that doesn’t know it is the regular season and the games count.

Now that its over, the team is up ****s creek.  Its usually too early for a gut check, but if ever there was a time, now is it.  Now is the time to find the paddle.  How much does Favre want to learn the playbook?  How much does Coles want to play with Favre?  How much does Faneca really have in the tank?  Can the defense make itself look better than it did if it must face any stretch without Jenkins?  Just how important exactly is Jenkins to the defense?  Who’s the punter?  The questions are endless.

The next few weeks can’t come and go slow enough.  They need time to work on the kinks, but the mental state after the shellacking they took tonight is going to hurt.

Will they be able to get over this?  Or will they be doomed by their own shattered psyches?  Where are their heads after a pathetic loss like this, and the pathetic last one?

Originally Published Here.

As I stated in an earlier entry, the Pats will tread water without Brady.  But here’s some further food for thought:

Notwithstanding that as a coach he could have progressed, with the Browns and Bernie Kosar, from 1991 to 1995, Belichick was a pathetic 36-44.  Over his first 17 games as a Patriot, 16 games in 2000, and 1 in 2001with Drew Bledsoe, before Mo Lewis knocked him into Dallas, and created the Beast that is Tom Brady, Bill Belichick was a dismal 5-12.

So, Bill Belichick without Tom Brady as his QB is 41-56, with one playoff loss.

Game 2 of the 2001 season began the Tom Brady Epoch.  He has started every single game for the Patriots since then.  Bill Belichick with Tom Brady as his QB is 86-25 (regular season), winning three Super Bowl titles and having one perfect 16-0 season.

Without Brady = 42% Winning Percentage

With Brady = 74% Winning Percentage, 3 Super Bowls

Trouble In Paradise For Bill Belichick?

I begin by justifying the contention that the quality-of-football “gap” in the AFC East will radically contract in 08-09.   The Patriots set the ceiling not just in the division last year, but in the conference, in the league, and in history.  The Patriots went 16-0.  I haven’t calculated the probability that they may repeat, and don’t plan to.  The bottom line for the Patriots is that there is only one direction for them to head, and that direction is down.  The only relevant question, with the Jets, Bills, and Fins nipping at their heels, is “How far?“  Now, a disclaimer is in order:  the Patriots have one of the easiest schedules in the NFL this year.  Don’t ask how that happened, it just happened.  And even though we began Part I by showing how preseason records do NOT correlate to Regular Season records, certain trends do.   The first thing that needs be assessed about the Patriots is the question of their collective, organizational state of mind following their collosal crumbling in Super Bowl XLI.  People know how hard it is to effect change when a powerful status quo is held uniformly amongst a group, and the default opinion concerning the Patriots and the AFC East, given by analysts is the one given for years on end now, that the Patriots will once again be unchallengable.  Every year someone calls out the Bills and says, “This is their year“; or the saying of the Jets, “They could challenge for a Wild Card.“   But you would be hard pressed to find respected analysts picking anyone over the Patriots, for the most part for the entire decade.  And that hasn’t changed this year.

But New England’s characteristic swagger; the over-confident chip on the shoulder; and the unflappable uninjurable Tom Brady – all of that has been seriously damaged over that past nine months.  The Giants stole some of those items.  The swagger, the chip on the shoulder.  And the flapping of Tom Brady they helped to cause. How much of that can be turned into psychological or strategic advantage for the other teams?  Make no mistake.  The Patriots with Tom Brady are a strong team.  Without him, they would struggle.  And his status is the essential red or green light on their ability as a team this year.  We can only hope that the year becomes a referendum on his health.

Aside from Brady, and the psychological state of the team, but connected, is not the record per se of the Patriots during the preseason, but their lack of crispness, execution, and fundamentals (especially tackling).  The Patriots basically were dominated for large strectches in the preseason, not because it was the preseason, but because they seemed distracted, and perhaps, demoralized.  The defense didn’t execute, and the offense was in shambles.  Without Brady, they found no rhythm, and no efficacy.  It is one thing for Brady to miss Moss for four preseason games last year.  It is quite another thing for the entire offense to miss Brady for four preseason games.  It will be interesting to see at what level of cohesion their chemistry will be.  for those that think the Chiefs will be a push over, if they run the ball effectively against an aging defense (although still with the best D-Line in the division and maybe conference), Brady may get less of a chance against 2007′s 5th rated pass defense than he’d like.

That is the book on the Patriots.  How will this once-proud but now demoralized franchise cope with a disaster of collosal proportions such as was their defeat to in Super Bowl XLI?  How will they cope with a consistently aging defense that has lost its best player in the secondary?  The team has had a spotty record in the draft, and has lost good players to free agancy and retirement.  It has not been able to restock its inventory of players.  The result is a lack of depth, and a degraded level of play.  The offensive line and the defensive linebacking and secondary corps seem to have been hit the hardest.

En sum, despite having a ease of schedule advantages and professional analyst support, this Patriots team is not nearly as good as last year’s team.  They could be ripe to lose the division, but will certainly continue to be brought back to earth to some extent this year, a trend that the Giants started.

The Miami Dolphins, everyone thinks, will stink again.  But this I guarantee:  they, like the patriots won’t see the extremity they saw last year.  And I think that they could be a decent team this year.  With Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams, they have the best Running Backs in the division and could be one of the best duos in the game.   They have a rejuvenated offensive line with rookie left tackle, Jake Long, FA pickup Justin Smiley, and last year’s rookie sensation, Samson Satele.  The jury will be out on Long’s pass blocking, but the left side of the line will look to pave the way for this team in 08.  A player that could break out is Satele, a Center/Guard in college with excellent athleticism, agility, and ability to locate and finish at the second level.  For Jet fans, you may see a little Mawae in him when he pulls from Center and blocks downfield.  The preseason showed a capable backfield, and a smart Pennington clicking relatively well.

In Chad Pennington, the Fins have the stability they need at the fulcrum of the franchise with which to build from.  Pennington will need to spread the ball, and manage games in his trademark fashion, without giving up the interceptions he has in the recent past.  Anthony Fasano and Ted Ginn, along with the runing backs look to be the top targets.  Chad will need another WR to step up and take underneath routes and dump offs.  Who will it be?  In the end, Pennington makes the Dolphins a much better team than they were last year.  He’s the best QB they’ve had since Marino.  And he has looked VERY sharp in the preseason.  Look for that to carry over into the regular season.  Dan Henning will create an offense tailored to his strengths.

The weakest spot on the Dolphins is their secondary.  Despite Will Allen and Yeremiah Bell being adequate starters, there is nothing special to speak of.  Andre Goodman is a potential liability, and Jason Allen has not lived up to potential.  The OLBs are a big question mark, but the infusion of talent through Kendall Langford and Phillip Merling is potentially game-changing.  In a couple short years, they could have a top-tier 34 DL, which is an amazing feat.  Adding Adoyele from the Cowboys to Channing Crowder at ILB gives the Fins a very competant ILB duo.  WIth Vonnie Holliday and Jason Ferguson anchoring in front, the middle will look to be the strength of the defense.  At OLB, Joey Porter remains a big what-if, if not a has-been, and Matt Roth is a project that has not been defined yet.

This team will use the year to grow, but Parcells will make everyone accountable in ways that the Dolphin franchise hasn’t seen since Shula.  Tony Sparano is a rookie head coach and may experience growing pains with the team.  But I would pencil this team in for a big year…compared to 2007′s 0-14 and then 1-15 campaign.

The Bills are a sleeper.  From what I’ve seen in the preseason, this team is finally healthy, and ready to bust loose.  Dick Jauron is a really solid head coach that has guts and clarity.  The Bills roster is stacked with first class talent at some positions, and their special teams game is premier.  The Bills looked pretty sharp in the preseason, and their fundamentals looked to be crisp for the most part.

The big question for the Bills is Trent Edwards.  What do they have here?  He has the weapons around him.  Lee Evans is a blazing fast player capable of changing games without notice.  Josh Reed is a perfect possession compliment, and Roscoe Parrish and giant rookie James Hardy provide spectacular depth.  Robert Royal is an excellent blocking tight end that is used sparely but strategically in the passing game.

The Bills have a superior offensive line.  Left Tackle Jason Peters has the type of ability rarely seen; adding Derrick Dockery next to him at left guard adds to their power running game that features two talented backs in Marshawn Lynch and Fred Taylor.  This mix at the skill positions, besides QB, and on the line is a mix that is capable of defeating any defense.  They can posture themselves as a power running team, or a dynamic passing attack, at will.  Watch out for this offense this year.  If Trent Edwards “gets it”, they will be dangerous.

On defense though, is where the Bills look most impressive. This is a team that has suffered injury after injury habitually.  Last year they lost first round pick ILB, Paul Posluzny, in week one, and started John DiGiorgio the rest of the year.  Poz is back.  And with some added beef in front as well.  The Jets and Browns weren’t the only ones to pick up all-star type DTs.  The Bills signed Marcus Stroud to line up next to former LSU tiger, workman-like, Kyle Williams.  At DE they feature world-class sack-master, Aaron Schobel, and the capable Kris Kelsay.  This is a formidable DL: stout in the middle and with ability to get to the QB from the edge.  Lining up with Poz is Kawika Mitchell, signed from the champion Giants and Angelo Crowell, a Bills staple.  Many professional “analysts” scratched their heads when they drafted two safeties in the first round two years ago.  But the way the secondary has grown, the move has paid off.  Ko Simpson is looking to rebound towards rookiw form when he had 76 tackles, a sack and two interceptions, from an injury-hampered 2007, and Donte Whitner is growing into a respected cover 2 safety.  The Bills a stout through all three middle levels:  DT, MLB, FS, SS.

At CB, the Bills drafted preseason phenom, Leodis McKelvin, who in time will leave his mark.  But they already have two capable zone CBs in Jabari Greer and the very good Terrance McGee.  Ashton Youbouty provides excellent depth along with McKelvin.  Again, the Bills have very few question marks aside from can they stay healthy, and how good will Poz actually be.

The Bills have the best punter in the division, conference and league in Brian Moorman, a true asset in the nuance of the game: field position, and some of the best returners in Roscoe Parrish, McGee and McKelvin.  Ryan Lindell is one of the top PK’s in the business, has a very live leg, and is accurate.

The Bills have drafted well, like Miami and the Jets, and unlike the Patriots of late, and have added great value to their defensive line, LB corp and secondary.  All three levels are primed to create something special.   The special teams deserve special note, as the Bills have a set of special teamers that can break open games.  The offense is loaded with talent and depth; all it needs is a field general.  Is Trent Edwards ready?

The Regular Season is so hard to preview based on what you see in Preseason that it doesn’t feel right to make a big predictive deal about it.

The Patriots for example seem to always suck in the preseason, and then go on to be unstoppable. Since 2003, when the went 4-0 in the preseason, but then fell to 2-2 parity in September before rolling of 14 straight wins in the crusade to their second Superbowl of the decade, the Patriots have gone 1-3, 2-2, 2-2, 2-2, and 0-4 this year. In that span – not including this year – they have won 5 (straight) division titles, made 4 AFC championships, winning 3 of them, and appeared in two Superbowls, losing one in dramatic fashion and winning one, the win being 2005′s back-to-back SB win over Philly.

And we the hapless Jets commonly come out of the preseason like 3-1 or something and then it is a toss up. Under Herm since 2003, we were 3-2, 3-1, and 3-1; under Mangini we’ve gone 2-2, 3-1, and now this year, 3-1. In that time, we’ve won zero divisional titles, and been to the playoffs as a Wild Card team twice. Once in 2004-05, when we beat the Chargers in OT and then lost Doug Brien OT style to the Steelers in the Divisional Round, and second in 2006-07, when we snuck in behind the Pats and got squashed by them in the Wildcard Game.

Preseason records don’t correlate to regular season success. Some players like Tom Brady in 08 or Randy Moss in 07 don’t play a single snap in the preseason. Randy Moss seemed fine last year. Tom Brady has declared himself ready for the opener; he is the only reason any serious commentator thinks the Patriots will again dominate. And teams don’t always trot out their A-Games, or even a gameplan at all. So it’s difficult to get a sense of things, all things being equal, like they are in the regular season, because in the preseason, all things are not equal.

But other things about the preseason do correlate to, or better said, carry over to, the Regular Season . You can sense a team’s focus, and their chemistry.  That can and does carry over.  You can see problem areas when things are more equalized, like when first-teamers are out against first-teamers, and the play is for real.  Like it is in the trenches during certain first and/or second series of preseason games, first halves, etc.  You can sense which players flash skill, like Joe Flacco, Leodis McKelvin or Dwight Lowery have done this year, and notice which players flash problems or growing pains, like Justin Miller, Matt Leinart or Matt Cassell have done.  Some teams look sharp and some just look dull.  For some teams this may be a problem; for others, not so much. Some players or teams show sound fundamentals, some look lost.

So, with all that said, lets make a big predictive deal about the whole year, anyway, from about December 2007 until the end of preseason 2008. Let’s do that for the AFC East.

Generally speaking, the AFC East looks to be a more competitive group this year. The gap between the rich and poor will pinch dramatically. The Fins won’t start the year 0-14 and the Pats won’t go 16-0. Those two things are “in the pocket”. They are as good as fact. The Jets and the Bills are both better teams.

In other words, expect a much tighter and more exciting division than you’ve seen since the last time another team won the division.

To be continued…

What Brett Favre actually said was, and listen closely now, “There’s no guarantees, there’s never been any guarantees from me.  The game of football is just that – a game of football – and anything can happen“.

Again:  “…No guarantees, there’s never been any guarantees from me.” This just slightly piques the interest because the implication is clear to any rational (!) Jets Fan.  Whether or not Brett Favre is versed in Jets Lore, even NFL Lore, I don’t know, but it is hard to pass up life’s small ironies, especially ones from Brett Favre’s inaugural address as a New York Jet, a speech rife with reference to a self-manufactured distinction between himself, his country-boy manner and “commercials and Broadway, all those things” that seem to reference the Jets Most Famous Player, the braggadocio QB Joe Namath.  See, there’s a tangible difference between saying on the one hand, “there’s never been any guarantees for me” and on the other, “there’s never been any guarantees from me”.  The usage of “for” and “from” impart two completely different meanings, and the true meaning is not at all fungible.

For the NFL Lore novice, which I doubt Brett Favre is, having played for such a Lore-Rich Franchise for 16 years, The Green Bay Packers, “Broadway” Joe was the trailblazing, hotshot, hipster QB that gunned the Jets and the AFL to their first Championship versus the NFL in what was the “Championship Game” and now is the “Super Bowl”.  This was no ordinary win because it proved that the upstart underdog AFL could stand toe to toe with the NFL’s elite, take the hits, and then, amazingly, first take over the game, dominate, and finally deliver a knockout.  It was unique because of the bravado displayed by Namath three days before the game, when in response to a heckler at a press conference claiming that the Colts would kick the Jets you-know-whats, Namath’s visceral response came out as, “We’re goning to win the game.  I guarantee it.“

Now, this knowledge is canon for any football fan with a brain.  Namath guaranteed victory and then came through.  Greatest upset in Superbowl history.  It legitimized the AFL; forced  the merger into what is now the modern NFL.  Canon.  But a price paid in what some say was blood.

Gotham, brash, bravado – Brett Favre has drawn the line in the sand.  And the distinction was made yet again today, in Favre’s first Post-Practice comments.  Have a listen: “I’d love to win the Super Bowl…and as I said yesterday and the day before: my intentions are to help this team win.  I can’t make any guarantees.  I’m not going to make any guarantees. Hopefully all I can say is I’ll do my best; hopefully that’s enough.”

Brett’s coming through loud and clear.  He isn’t a savior.  He isn’t a 22 year old iconoclast with a fu-manchu.  Brett is emphatically NOT Joe Namath.  He’s “here for one reason.  Not to do commercials and Broadway, all those things.  I’m here to help the Jets win.  So the sooner I can get to that, the better.“

Brett Favre has striking physical and gameplay similarities to Namath:  The rocket arm, the gunslinger mentality, the interceptions.  But Brett Favre is the iconoclast Anti-Namath, in the House That Namath Built.  That Cursed House.  In a town where even when you win, you don’t always win.  Especially if your uniforms are green.  Brett is no savior, according to himself.  No sir indeed.  By whatever force he has been blown onto Gotham’s Tabloids, he is like a leaf twirling in an eddy in the wind.

I am left wondering, as so many are left wondering, is Brett Favre just a small town southern-boy mindin’ his own, or is he a real Turn of Fortune for a luck-less franchise?  Is Brett Favre for real, or is this some sort of twisted joke engineered by forces we cannot grasp?

I’ll tell you what, even with his brutal honesty, Brett Favre’s saying all the right things.  And I’ll tell you what’s more, there’s an ear dedicated to listening, a hand dedicated to writing, and a reckoning to be made when it’s all said and done.

Joe Namath-Brett Favre Lore?

originally published here.