Namath: “There is an overall-concept problem with this team…”

Namath Calling Mangini Out?

In an On Air Response to question given to him in the Announcer’s Box about the product he sees on the field (where FAVRE had just thrown again into double coverage on third down and missed badly, getting hit HARD in the process), he deadpanned it, didn’t parse his words:

“It’s not just the QB (Favre). There is an overall-concept problem with this team.”

~

This is both funny and inspiring.  Joe Namath doesn’t give a damn.  He knows it just needs to be said.  Live, and on-air.  The insinuation is, “someone isn’t getting it”.  That’s coaching.  That’s design.  Overall-Concept is a direct jab at the frequent Mangini-ism of the “Whole System”.

Overall-Concept = System = Mangini

~

The question I have fot you is this:  does the flaw in the Overall-Concept extend also to Football Operations in the Front Office with the general management?  Or perhaps up to the ownership of the team?  Or is the flaw isolated?

Weakest Links: Analyzing the Passing Defense

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Here’s the thing. The Big Problem so far. Our Pass Defense stinks.

Tell me what you think.

Here’s IMO why:

While we’re in the middle of the pack per pass attempts against our defense (181), 66.9% of those passes have been completed, leading to a large amount of pass completions (121). Only 4 teams are giving up a greater completion % of pass attempts (Denver, Houston, Arizona, Cleveland).

Perhaps you’ll say, “We’re only giving up underneath stuff. Not a biggie. What’s the Average Per Completion?” The AVG is 7.1, which while it is more towards the middle of the pack, here’s a number that is making alot of trouble for us: 40.3%. 40.3% is the percentage of completions that are going for first downs against our defense, a number which indicates the worst performance in this category in the league. #32 in the league.

Now, maybe you’ll say, “But we’ve faced two of the most dynamic passing offenses in the NFL in Arizona and San Diego. The stats are skewed. How did we do against the others?“

Against Pennington’s Dolphins, we allowed him to go 26 of 43 (60.5%) for 251 yards (5.8 avg) and 2 TDS, with only one int, thrown in desperation in the last seconds. Pennington threw 15 FDs in that game. The Dolphins only ran for 2 FDs.

The Patriots, with Cassel in his first NFL start completed 16 of 23 passes (69.6%) with 10 of those passes going for first downs (they had 6 rushing fds). His avg was 7.2 yards per completion on 165 yards.

Ryan Fitzpatrick, another neophyte, was 20 of 33 for yes, only 152 yards (4.6 avg), but he is still completing 60.6% of passes, and with 10 of his 20 completions going for first downs. Thats 50% of his completions went for fds, as compared to only 3 rushing FDs.

The thing that we should all realize is that we haven’t been able to really embarrass any of these QBs, severely limited QBs. QBs that should have gone home in statistical body bags. Instead, what we see is our defense carved up by a high percentage efficiency strategy. That’s not to say in the games against Warner and Rivers, our Pass Defense wasn’t completely exposed. It was.

Rivers put a 19 of 25 for 250ish and 3 TDs (and one int for pick six to start the game). Lets see, that’s 76% for 10 yards per completion. A rating of 130.0. 12 of his 19 completions (63.2%) went for first downs. 4 were for 20+ ( a fifth for 19 yards), and 1 of those was a 60 yard completion. There were blown coverages all over the field.

Warner put up a twilight zone game. 40 of 57 for 472 yards, and 2 TDs with 3 picks to go with. This is a game where the pressure seemed to pay off. But the bottom line is the efficiency: 70.3% for 8.3 yards a pop. And here’s the kicker. 26 of Warner’s 40 passes went for first downs (65%). That’s compared to 5 rushing and 2 by penalty.

The figures above are vexed by another stat on performance that we are all drooling over, our league-leading 18 sacks (also – 18 only in 5 games). That figure makes our pass-defense so frustrating, because usually, sacks are an indication of QB pressure on passing downs, and pressure on the OL and QB on passing plays usually tilt the balance in favor of the defense, on those plays. In the above three games, against Pennington, Cassel, and Fitzpatrick, we had 4, 4 and 5 sacks, and only one INT which came at the end of regulation. Against Warner we had 5 sacks, and Rivers 0. For our defense, it’s either hit or miss on passing plays. When we sack the QB, that’s a hit, when we don’t the indications point to poor coverage somewhere, or poor scheming.

One thing that really pisses most fans off, is the prevent defense. I’ve never understood using this defense beyond 10 seconds and under in a half or game. The concept just makes no sense to me. It doesn’t have to be a pure “Prevent” either. It just has to do with over-scheming on the safe side. Factoring aggression out of playcalling and the pass rush out of the defense. Take away the pass rush and the aggression, give the other team momentum. Sounds like it’s just asking to complicate things, both on the scoreboard and in the trainer’s room. When you take the foot off the pedal, the logic some hold to is it reduces injury. I think the truth is the opposite. It makes your players more vulnerable, and because they are on the field for longer, they are more vulnerable for longer. In the Arizona game for example, we came out and didn’t totally go into a shell, but we played much less aggressively.

Likewise, and this is probably THEE major point to take out of this, our defense has had a real hard time covering RBs, and 3rd WRs IMO, especially underneath. Checking in with Football Outsiders (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef) not including this week our coverage (DVOA) on opponents’ #1 and #2 WRs has been very good, #4 in the league and #12 in the league respectively. That is a credit to Revis and Lowery and the Safeties helping. Even versus TEs, we rank #6 in DVOA. Now, in covering teams’ #3 WRs and RBs, we are 31st and 29th in the league. I don’t know how well those FO stats hold up to the eyeball test. In watching the games I’ve had a lingering suspicion that our LBs and Safeties are not so good coverage wise, and that our CBs are often giving yup too much cushion. Revis is a good player, and he’s respected around the league. Lowery is ok, he is hot and cold. Rhodes is fair, but no other safety we have can cover, and Pace of the LBs, seems most adept, but we have had a lot of problems on crossing routes, and underneath stuff against our CBs, S, and LBs. And apparently, WRs are giving us a hard time. In fact we’ve had a lot of different problems with receptions and yards coming from all over. Here’s the breakdown from our games’ boxscores:

MIA:
A. Fasano 8 84 1 17
D. Martin 4 53 1 24
Camarillo 3 37 0 17
R. Brown 3 28 0 13
T. Ginn 2 17 0 14
R. Williams 4 15 0 15
P. Cobbs 1 9 0 9
D. Bess 1 8 0 8

NE:
W. Welker 7 72 0 26
K. Faulk 4 50 0 22
R. Moss 2 22 0 14
D. Thomas 1 14 0 14
S. Morris 2 7 0 4

SD:
Jackson 3 74 0 60
C. Davis 3 43 0 20
D. Sproles 2 39 0 25
Chambers 1 27 1 27
A. Gates 2 25 1 19
Tomlinson 3 20 0 9
M. Tolbert 4 17 1 6
Manum… 1 5 0 5

ARZ:
S. Breaston 9 122 0 37
L. Fitzgerald 8 122 0 32
A. Boldin 10 119 1 26
J. Urban 5 50 1 14
E. James 5 37 0 16
B. Patrick 1 11 0 11
T. Smith 1 6 0 6
Hightower 1 5 0 5

CIN:
Johnson 5 57 0 16
T. Housh 7 49 0 13
B. Utecht 4 34 0 12
C. Henry 1 13 0 13
C. Perry 2 2 0 2

When we look at the stats and watch the games with our own eyes and see Jenkins and the Front 7 doing it’s job against the run it looks like this:

MIA – 17 rushes for 49 yards, 2.9 ypc, 1 TFL for 1 yd, 2 FD
NE – 32 rushes for 104, 3.2 ypc, 5 TFL for 9 yards, 6 FD
SD – 35 rushes, 107, 3.1 ypc., 0 TFL, 8 FD
ARZ – 15 rushes, 42 yards, 2.8 ypc., 0 TFL, 5 FD
CIN – 21 rushes for 43 yards, 2.0 ypc,. 3 TFL for 3 yards, 3 FD

In order to make that “great leap” into elite status, we have to find a way to control opposing teams passing on us. Some of the other teams that have as good or better run defenses have managed to leverage their aggression or pressure into passing downs where sacks are unsuccessful. They are able to stymie drives by being more successful on 3rd down. Our continual problem is giving up the unclutch play on 3rd down to extend the drive. A series of such 3rd down conversions is a clock-eating, field-position changing, potential scoring drive. We have to find a way to stop offenses from stringing sets of downs out into long drives. But…

IMO, this might continue to be a big problem for us. Against good offenses we’ve been exposed. And not so good ones, we have been inconsistent at best. This season we will have to fight in this area, and try to force more ints from pressures. What we really need to look out for are players in the future.

Specifically we need to look at ILBs that can cover as well as hit, and we need to look at a Safety that can cover and hit. Kerry Rhodes hasn’t really been a dominant force for us yet this year in the secondary. Perhaps he is overextended because our other S has been a liability? Maybe we over-rate him. The bottom line is “no impact”. While our offense needs work in the upcoming draft, these two areas on the defense will have to be addressed. It’s that bad.

Finally, and probably not as important as pure personnel (S and ILB) Sutton and Mangini have to abandon the concept of “pulling back”. Abandon the prevent defense. It doesn’t work, and never will. Abandon the “give them the underneath stuff, so they can march down the field and wear our defense down” approach. It sucks.

I will be following up on this thread for the remainder of the year to see how trends develop.

Favre/Passing Game Stats at the Quarter Mark

Originally Published 09-28-2008

Favre/Passing Game Stats at the Quarter Mark

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One Quarter of the season in the books folks, and it is looking better!

We’ve seen the fluky play and the magic.

Here’s what his statline looks like:

87 completions
124 attempts
for 935 yards
= 70% completion rate & 7.54 y/a

12 TDs to 4 ints.

TD%
= 9.7%

INT%
= 3.2

QB rating
= 110.8

a straight line projection gives us:

3740 yards, 48 TDs, 16 ints

not bad, right?

over a 4 game sequence, some significant numbers and trends:

his yardage sequence has gone from under 200 y/g to cresting towards 300:
194
181
271
289

his completion % hasn’t dipped below 68%:
68.2%
69.2%
71.4%
70.6%

in each game he’s had a LNG of 40+:
56
54
41
40

his TD-INT ratio has never been in the red, and has grown to 3:1:
2-0
1-1
3-2
6-1
12-4

his QB rating shows efficiency, and control over his game, even though he’s had some highly visible ints, meaning that his positive plays are outweighing his negatives after a whole game is in the books:
125.9
85.6
92.5
123.7

And he’s spreading the ball around very well through 4 games:

to his WRs:
Coles = 18 rec for 257 yards and 4 TDs / 14.3 / long of 54
Cotch = 18 rec for 243 and 3 TDs / 13.5 / long of 56
Stuckey = 14 rec for 134 and 3 TDs / 9.6 / long of 28
total= 50 for 634 and 10 TDs

to his TEs:
Keller = 6 for 84 yards and 2 TDs / 14.0 / long of 24
Baker = 6 for 69 / 11.5 / long of 29
Franks = 6 for 47 / 7.8 / long of 25
total= 18 for 200 and 2 TDs

to his RBs:
Leon = 12 for 76 / 6.3 / 15 long
TJ = 9 for 47 / 5.2 / 19 long
total= 21 for 123

percentage to position notes:
he’s completing 56.2% of his throws to his WRs for 67.8% of his yardage.
he’s completing 20.2% of his throws to his TEs for 21.4% of his yardage.
he’s completing 23.6% of his throws to his RBs for 13.2% of his yardage.

straight line projections for WRs, TEs, RBs:
WRs:
Coles = 72 for 1028 10+ TDs
Cotch = 72 for 972 10+ TDs
Stuckey = 56 for 536 10+ TDs
total = 200 for 2536 30+ Tds

TEs:
Keller = 24 for 336 8 TDs
Baker = 24 for 276
Franks = 24 for 188
total = 72 for 800

RBs:
Leon = 48 recs for 304
Jones = 36 for 188
total = 84 for 492

Originally Published Here.

Post Game Thoughts – Jets at San Diego MNF

Originally Posted 09-23-2008

The Big Question Right Now is Where Are Their Heads?

The Jets are rattled right now.  Universal deer in the headlights.  They are on a LONG plane ride home right now.

But how did this happen?  The Jets dissembled the core of their team, replacing two very popular players in the locker room in Pennington and Vilma – guys that were integral to the character and chemistry of the team.  The Jets cobbled together expensive spare parts from elsewhere, even if those parts are all-pros.  The team hasn’t had a lot of time to gel, and the arrival of Favre magnified the NY sports media spotlight.  The Jets believed they were in a win-now mode and building a competitive team.  It has become apparent that Favre has had a ton of trouble adjusting to the offense and in turn, the offense to him.  They are just so out of sync. Connected with that is the defense and ST.  The entire team has a ton of high profile and very different players.  Some holdovers like prideful holdovers like Coles, and many new faces like Faneca, Woody, Pace, Jenkins and Favre, just don’t seem to have any sort of gameday chemistry, and I only wonder what the locker room is like after these two losses.  Who is stepping up?  Who’s leading? Who’s the captain of this ship?  Favre is not the type.

Lombardi said that winning is contagious, and I’m afraid the losing this team has done of late also is contagious.  It bleeds over from week to week.  It has guys like Faneca and Favre second guess their decisions, and maybe just start looking paycheck to paycheck.

To top it off, the team really has no elder statesman to level the ship.  No one like Parcells…

Mangini doesn’t have the equity being so young to do it.

If you think, the Jets have looked totally out of whack since the 3rd or 4th quarter of the Miami game, with the major scare that came down to the last play.  Relief right?

Then, the Jets invested so much import into the Patriots game, came out and just played poor enough to let the Patriots dink and dunk their way to victory.  The Jets were emotionally spent, and devastated after that loss.  They bought into the hype, and a punk named Cassel popped the bubble.

Tonight was nothing short of a nationally televised flogging:  the Jets were beaten up physically and embarrassed operationally.  To add to the insult, there are injuries to the fulcrum on the defense, with Jenkins, and to Favre on offense.  Pulling him in the 4th may have had something to do with the injury in addition to the game being out of reach.

Coming out of this, I don’t know how they can do it.  They have been exposed as frauds.  Well-paid frauds.  Guys that don’t play crisp, watchable football.  They are playing like a 4-12 squad.  Or a squad that doesn’t know it is the regular season and the games count.

Now that its over, the team is up ****s creek.  Its usually too early for a gut check, but if ever there was a time, now is it.  Now is the time to find the paddle.  How much does Favre want to learn the playbook?  How much does Coles want to play with Favre?  How much does Faneca really have in the tank?  Can the defense make itself look better than it did if it must face any stretch without Jenkins?  Just how important exactly is Jenkins to the defense?  Who’s the punter?  The questions are endless.

The next few weeks can’t come and go slow enough.  They need time to work on the kinks, but the mental state after the shellacking they took tonight is going to hurt.

Will they be able to get over this?  Or will they be doomed by their own shattered psyches?  Where are their heads after a pathetic loss like this, and the pathetic last one?

Originally Published Here.

The Conventional Wisdom of The Tom Brady Injury May Be Wrong In the Short Run

9-9-08

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The Long-Term impact on the Patriots of losing Tom Brady is far from clear. It will be a difficult road ahead for that squad, which is already old and which still looks demoralized from their butt-kicking in Super Bowl XLI. I think this clearly kicks down the door to the AFC crown.

As I see it, in the short-run, the effect may be just the beginning of that as above. The beginning of the end for those old farts. As many others are saying, that this is a prime opportunity for the Jets to take what’s finally ours, to “finish them off”. We will sit back and watch as certain players, knowing the championship ain’t growing on the vine this year, start to mail their season in. Maybe it’ll be a shoe-in…Maybe…

But it may also be this, and signs may be pointing at it: a Patriots team that hasn’t looked sharp since last January, and that practically slept through week one, just may have been doused by that fat bucket of ice water that will wake their sloppy arses up.

Word out of the Patriots locker room is anger that Pollard’s hit was deemed “within the rules”. Vince Wilfork, who was fined for a similar hit last year, was incensed. Richard Seymour doesn’t really think this is a “life or death situation” for the team, he thinks they’ll just fall back on the old ways that always made the Pats successful, before Superstar Brady, before Moss, and Wes, when Brady was just a QB, a game manager, about as good as Chad Pennington, and the defense was stout, opportunistic, carrying the team.

The Fall of Tom Brady, it is very possible, could be a catalyst that focuses, unites, and strengthens the team as a whole, especially their collective will, and drive. Where before the injury, we hadn’t seen a very sharp, motivated Patriots team, after, we see a fired up, more focused team.

It is possible that the team will fall apart over the course of the season, or perhaps they will fight on.

But whatever happens after this week against the Jets, this Sunday may serve as the Clarion Call for a proud 1-0 team, especially on defense, that wants respect, the respect that it may think Tom Brady has gotten a little too much of himself, and hears everyone writing them off.

I think the Jets will get the Pats “A Game”. Individual efforts will be more driven. Coaches will be using this as motivation. And the team will come out wild and proud.

The Jets will have to show something they haven’t been so prone to show in their history: a killer instinct. The Jets will have to just obliterate this team, and beat them not just physically, but psychologically. The Pats will have to know, it is actually impossible.

originally published here.

Bill Belichick: Under Further Review

I found a very interesting tidbit tonight with just a little research.  In light of Tom Brady’s season ending injury, I began to wonder what to expect from this team without Brady.

As I stated in an earlier entry, the Pats will tread water without Brady.  But here’s some further food for thought:

Notwithstanding that as a coach he could have progressed, with the Browns and Bernie Kosar, from 1991 to 1995, Belichick was a pathetic 36-44.  Over his first 17 games as a Patriot, 16 games in 2000, and 1 in 2001with Drew Bledsoe, before Mo Lewis knocked him into Dallas, and created the Beast that is Tom Brady, Bill Belichick was a dismal 5-12.

So, Bill Belichick without Tom Brady as his QB is 41-56, with one playoff loss.

Game 2 of the 2001 season began the Tom Brady Epoch.  He has started every single game for the Patriots since then.  Bill Belichick with Tom Brady as his QB is 86-25 (regular season), winning three Super Bowl titles and having one perfect 16-0 season.

Without Brady = 42% Winning Percentage

With Brady = 74% Winning Percentage, 3 Super Bowls

Trouble In Paradise For Bill Belichick?

2008 Season Preview

Part Two {continued from 2008 Preseason Wrap}

I begin by justifying the contention that the quality-of-football “gap” in the AFC East will radically contract in 08-09.   The Patriots set the ceiling not just in the division last year, but in the conference, in the league, and in history.  The Patriots went 16-0.  I haven’t calculated the probability that they may repeat, and don’t plan to.  The bottom line for the Patriots is that there is only one direction for them to head, and that direction is down.  The only relevant question, with the Jets, Bills, and Fins nipping at their heels, is “How far?“  Now, a disclaimer is in order:  the Patriots have one of the easiest schedules in the NFL this year.  Don’t ask how that happened, it just happened.  And even though we began Part I by showing how preseason records do NOT correlate to Regular Season records, certain trends do.   The first thing that needs be assessed about the Patriots is the question of their collective, organizational state of mind following their collosal crumbling in Super Bowl XLI.  People know how hard it is to effect change when a powerful status quo is held uniformly amongst a group, and the default opinion concerning the Patriots and the AFC East, given by analysts is the one given for years on end now, that the Patriots will once again be unchallengable.  Every year someone calls out the Bills and says, “This is their year“; or the saying of the Jets, “They could challenge for a Wild Card.“   But you would be hard pressed to find respected analysts picking anyone over the Patriots, for the most part for the entire decade.  And that hasn’t changed this year.

But New England’s characteristic swagger; the over-confident chip on the shoulder; and the unflappable uninjurable Tom Brady – all of that has been seriously damaged over that past nine months.  The Giants stole some of those items.  The swagger, the chip on the shoulder.  And the flapping of Tom Brady they helped to cause. How much of that can be turned into psychological or strategic advantage for the other teams?  Make no mistake.  The Patriots with Tom Brady are a strong team.  Without him, they would struggle.  And his status is the essential red or green light on their ability as a team this year.  We can only hope that the year becomes a referendum on his health.

Aside from Brady, and the psychological state of the team, but connected, is not the record per se of the Patriots during the preseason, but their lack of crispness, execution, and fundamentals (especially tackling).  The Patriots basically were dominated for large strectches in the preseason, not because it was the preseason, but because they seemed distracted, and perhaps, demoralized.  The defense didn’t execute, and the offense was in shambles.  Without Brady, they found no rhythm, and no efficacy.  It is one thing for Brady to miss Moss for four preseason games last year.  It is quite another thing for the entire offense to miss Brady for four preseason games.  It will be interesting to see at what level of cohesion their chemistry will be.  for those that think the Chiefs will be a push over, if they run the ball effectively against an aging defense (although still with the best D-Line in the division and maybe conference), Brady may get less of a chance against 2007′s 5th rated pass defense than he’d like.

That is the book on the Patriots.  How will this once-proud but now demoralized franchise cope with a disaster of collosal proportions such as was their defeat to in Super Bowl XLI?  How will they cope with a consistently aging defense that has lost its best player in the secondary?  The team has had a spotty record in the draft, and has lost good players to free agancy and retirement.  It has not been able to restock its inventory of players.  The result is a lack of depth, and a degraded level of play.  The offensive line and the defensive linebacking and secondary corps seem to have been hit the hardest.

En sum, despite having a ease of schedule advantages and professional analyst support, this Patriots team is not nearly as good as last year’s team.  They could be ripe to lose the division, but will certainly continue to be brought back to earth to some extent this year, a trend that the Giants started.

The Miami Dolphins, everyone thinks, will stink again.  But this I guarantee:  they, like the patriots won’t see the extremity they saw last year.  And I think that they could be a decent team this year.  With Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams, they have the best Running Backs in the division and could be one of the best duos in the game.   They have a rejuvenated offensive line with rookie left tackle, Jake Long, FA pickup Justin Smiley, and last year’s rookie sensation, Samson Satele.  The jury will be out on Long’s pass blocking, but the left side of the line will look to pave the way for this team in 08.  A player that could break out is Satele, a Center/Guard in college with excellent athleticism, agility, and ability to locate and finish at the second level.  For Jet fans, you may see a little Mawae in him when he pulls from Center and blocks downfield.  The preseason showed a capable backfield, and a smart Pennington clicking relatively well.

In Chad Pennington, the Fins have the stability they need at the fulcrum of the franchise with which to build from.  Pennington will need to spread the ball, and manage games in his trademark fashion, without giving up the interceptions he has in the recent past.  Anthony Fasano and Ted Ginn, along with the runing backs look to be the top targets.  Chad will need another WR to step up and take underneath routes and dump offs.  Who will it be?  In the end, Pennington makes the Dolphins a much better team than they were last year.  He’s the best QB they’ve had since Marino.  And he has looked VERY sharp in the preseason.  Look for that to carry over into the regular season.  Dan Henning will create an offense tailored to his strengths.

The weakest spot on the Dolphins is their secondary.  Despite Will Allen and Yeremiah Bell being adequate starters, there is nothing special to speak of.  Andre Goodman is a potential liability, and Jason Allen has not lived up to potential.  The OLBs are a big question mark, but the infusion of talent through Kendall Langford and Phillip Merling is potentially game-changing.  In a couple short years, they could have a top-tier 34 DL, which is an amazing feat.  Adding Adoyele from the Cowboys to Channing Crowder at ILB gives the Fins a very competant ILB duo.  WIth Vonnie Holliday and Jason Ferguson anchoring in front, the middle will look to be the strength of the defense.  At OLB, Joey Porter remains a big what-if, if not a has-been, and Matt Roth is a project that has not been defined yet.

This team will use the year to grow, but Parcells will make everyone accountable in ways that the Dolphin franchise hasn’t seen since Shula.  Tony Sparano is a rookie head coach and may experience growing pains with the team.  But I would pencil this team in for a big year…compared to 2007′s 0-14 and then 1-15 campaign.

The Bills are a sleeper.  From what I’ve seen in the preseason, this team is finally healthy, and ready to bust loose.  Dick Jauron is a really solid head coach that has guts and clarity.  The Bills roster is stacked with first class talent at some positions, and their special teams game is premier.  The Bills looked pretty sharp in the preseason, and their fundamentals looked to be crisp for the most part.

The big question for the Bills is Trent Edwards.  What do they have here?  He has the weapons around him.  Lee Evans is a blazing fast player capable of changing games without notice.  Josh Reed is a perfect possession compliment, and Roscoe Parrish and giant rookie James Hardy provide spectacular depth.  Robert Royal is an excellent blocking tight end that is used sparely but strategically in the passing game.

The Bills have a superior offensive line.  Left Tackle Jason Peters has the type of ability rarely seen; adding Derrick Dockery next to him at left guard adds to their power running game that features two talented backs in Marshawn Lynch and Fred Taylor.  This mix at the skill positions, besides QB, and on the line is a mix that is capable of defeating any defense.  They can posture themselves as a power running team, or a dynamic passing attack, at will.  Watch out for this offense this year.  If Trent Edwards “gets it”, they will be dangerous.

On defense though, is where the Bills look most impressive. This is a team that has suffered injury after injury habitually.  Last year they lost first round pick ILB, Paul Posluzny, in week one, and started John DiGiorgio the rest of the year.  Poz is back.  And with some added beef in front as well.  The Jets and Browns weren’t the only ones to pick up all-star type DTs.  The Bills signed Marcus Stroud to line up next to former LSU tiger, workman-like, Kyle Williams.  At DE they feature world-class sack-master, Aaron Schobel, and the capable Kris Kelsay.  This is a formidable DL: stout in the middle and with ability to get to the QB from the edge.  Lining up with Poz is Kawika Mitchell, signed from the champion Giants and Angelo Crowell, a Bills staple.  Many professional “analysts” scratched their heads when they drafted two safeties in the first round two years ago.  But the way the secondary has grown, the move has paid off.  Ko Simpson is looking to rebound towards rookiw form when he had 76 tackles, a sack and two interceptions, from an injury-hampered 2007, and Donte Whitner is growing into a respected cover 2 safety.  The Bills a stout through all three middle levels:  DT, MLB, FS, SS.

At CB, the Bills drafted preseason phenom, Leodis McKelvin, who in time will leave his mark.  But they already have two capable zone CBs in Jabari Greer and the very good Terrance McGee.  Ashton Youbouty provides excellent depth along with McKelvin.  Again, the Bills have very few question marks aside from can they stay healthy, and how good will Poz actually be.

The Bills have the best punter in the division, conference and league in Brian Moorman, a true asset in the nuance of the game: field position, and some of the best returners in Roscoe Parrish, McGee and McKelvin.  Ryan Lindell is one of the top PK’s in the business, has a very live leg, and is accurate.

The Bills have drafted well, like Miami and the Jets, and unlike the Patriots of late, and have added great value to their defensive line, LB corp and secondary.  All three levels are primed to create something special.   The special teams deserve special note, as the Bills have a set of special teamers that can break open games.  The offense is loaded with talent and depth; all it needs is a field general.  Is Trent Edwards ready?

2008 Pre-Season Wrap

Part One

The Regular Season is so hard to preview based on what you see in Preseason that it doesn’t feel right to make a big predictive deal about it.

The Patriots for example seem to always suck in the preseason, and then go on to be unstoppable. Since 2003, when the went 4-0 in the preseason, but then fell to 2-2 parity in September before rolling of 14 straight wins in the crusade to their second Superbowl of the decade, the Patriots have gone 1-3, 2-2, 2-2, 2-2, and 0-4 this year. In that span – not including this year – they have won 5 (straight) division titles, made 4 AFC championships, winning 3 of them, and appeared in two Superbowls, losing one in dramatic fashion and winning one, the win being 2005′s back-to-back SB win over Philly.

And we the hapless Jets commonly come out of the preseason like 3-1 or something and then it is a toss up. Under Herm since 2003, we were 3-2, 3-1, and 3-1; under Mangini we’ve gone 2-2, 3-1, and now this year, 3-1. In that time, we’ve won zero divisional titles, and been to the playoffs as a Wild Card team twice. Once in 2004-05, when we beat the Chargers in OT and then lost Doug Brien OT style to the Steelers in the Divisional Round, and second in 2006-07, when we snuck in behind the Pats and got squashed by them in the Wildcard Game.

Preseason records don’t correlate to regular season success. Some players like Tom Brady in 08 or Randy Moss in 07 don’t play a single snap in the preseason. Randy Moss seemed fine last year. Tom Brady has declared himself ready for the opener; he is the only reason any serious commentator thinks the Patriots will again dominate. And teams don’t always trot out their A-Games, or even a gameplan at all. So it’s difficult to get a sense of things, all things being equal, like they are in the regular season, because in the preseason, all things are not equal.

But other things about the preseason do correlate to, or better said, carry over to, the Regular Season . You can sense a team’s focus, and their chemistry.  That can and does carry over.  You can see problem areas when things are more equalized, like when first-teamers are out against first-teamers, and the play is for real.  Like it is in the trenches during certain first and/or second series of preseason games, first halves, etc.  You can sense which players flash skill, like Joe Flacco, Leodis McKelvin or Dwight Lowery have done this year, and notice which players flash problems or growing pains, like Justin Miller, Matt Leinart or Matt Cassell have done.  Some teams look sharp and some just look dull.  For some teams this may be a problem; for others, not so much. Some players or teams show sound fundamentals, some look lost.

So, with all that said, lets make a big predictive deal about the whole year, anyway, from about December 2007 until the end of preseason 2008. Let’s do that for the AFC East.

Generally speaking, the AFC East looks to be a more competitive group this year. The gap between the rich and poor will pinch dramatically. The Fins won’t start the year 0-14 and the Pats won’t go 16-0. Those two things are “in the pocket”. They are as good as fact. The Jets and the Bills are both better teams.

In other words, expect a much tighter and more exciting division than you’ve seen since the last time another team won the division.

To be continued…

Brett Favre, The Anti-Namath

The transcript written from Brett Favre’s New York Jets Introductory Press Conference has a small blip in it.  The New York Jets Website here has Favre saying: “There’s no guarantees, there’s never been any guarantees for me. The game of football is just that and anything can happen“.  A tiny blip, a little error, almost too hard to catch.  Nonetheless, a mistake.

What Brett Favre actually said was, and listen closely now, “There’s no guarantees, there’s never been any guarantees from me.  The game of football is just that – a game of football – and anything can happen“.

Again:  “…No guarantees, there’s never been any guarantees from me.” This just slightly piques the interest because the implication is clear to any rational (!) Jets Fan.  Whether or not Brett Favre is versed in Jets Lore, even NFL Lore, I don’t know, but it is hard to pass up life’s small ironies, especially ones from Brett Favre’s inaugural address as a New York Jet, a speech rife with reference to a self-manufactured distinction between himself, his country-boy manner and “commercials and Broadway, all those things” that seem to reference the Jets Most Famous Player, the braggadocio QB Joe Namath.  See, there’s a tangible difference between saying on the one hand, “there’s never been any guarantees for me” and on the other, “there’s never been any guarantees from me”.  The usage of “for” and “from” impart two completely different meanings, and the true meaning is not at all fungible.

For the NFL Lore novice, which I doubt Brett Favre is, having played for such a Lore-Rich Franchise for 16 years, The Green Bay Packers, “Broadway” Joe was the trailblazing, hotshot, hipster QB that gunned the Jets and the AFL to their first Championship versus the NFL in what was the “Championship Game” and now is the “Super Bowl”.  This was no ordinary win because it proved that the upstart underdog AFL could stand toe to toe with the NFL’s elite, take the hits, and then, amazingly, first take over the game, dominate, and finally deliver a knockout.  It was unique because of the bravado displayed by Namath three days before the game, when in response to a heckler at a press conference claiming that the Colts would kick the Jets you-know-whats, Namath’s visceral response came out as, “We’re goning to win the game.  I guarantee it.“

Now, this knowledge is canon for any football fan with a brain.  Namath guaranteed victory and then came through.  Greatest upset in Superbowl history.  It legitimized the AFL; forced  the merger into what is now the modern NFL.  Canon.  But a price paid in what some say was blood.

Gotham, brash, bravado – Brett Favre has drawn the line in the sand.  And the distinction was made yet again today, in Favre’s first Post-Practice comments.  Have a listen: “I’d love to win the Super Bowl…and as I said yesterday and the day before: my intentions are to help this team win.  I can’t make any guarantees.  I’m not going to make any guarantees. Hopefully all I can say is I’ll do my best; hopefully that’s enough.”

Brett’s coming through loud and clear.  He isn’t a savior.  He isn’t a 22 year old iconoclast with a fu-manchu.  Brett is emphatically NOT Joe Namath.  He’s “here for one reason.  Not to do commercials and Broadway, all those things.  I’m here to help the Jets win.  So the sooner I can get to that, the better.“

Brett Favre has striking physical and gameplay similarities to Namath:  The rocket arm, the gunslinger mentality, the interceptions.  But Brett Favre is the iconoclast Anti-Namath, in the House That Namath Built.  That Cursed House.  In a town where even when you win, you don’t always win.  Especially if your uniforms are green.  Brett is no savior, according to himself.  No sir indeed.  By whatever force he has been blown onto Gotham’s Tabloids, he is like a leaf twirling in an eddy in the wind.

I am left wondering, as so many are left wondering, is Brett Favre just a small town southern-boy mindin’ his own, or is he a real Turn of Fortune for a luck-less franchise?  Is Brett Favre for real, or is this some sort of twisted joke engineered by forces we cannot grasp?

I’ll tell you what, even with his brutal honesty, Brett Favre’s saying all the right things.  And I’ll tell you what’s more, there’s an ear dedicated to listening, a hand dedicated to writing, and a reckoning to be made when it’s all said and done.

Joe Namath-Brett Favre Lore?

Addressing Some of the Criticism And Confusion on the Dustin Keller Pick

5.05.08

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A lot of people have seemed frustrated and confused by the what the Jets did at the bottom of round one, which has led to many people criticizing this pick because it is difficult to see the rationale, and because it doesn’t fit the traditional mold or expectation. But that very fact of its mystification, and its going against the grain of normalcy is exactly why this pick is different than the type of TE in the first disaster that the Jets Fan is accustomed to.Before I try to dispel some of the frustration, it has to be said that just because a thing is not understood, or appears to go against the grain, does not translate into it being bad. Just because we don’t understand this phenomenon doesn’t mean there is s/t wrong with the phenomenon. It is our lack of understanding of the thing that is the problem. But we can’t cut corners. If we want to understand it, we have to unravel it and detect its cues. A national journalist that faces a deadline and has to give a draft grade, the whole lot of them, let them make heuristic judgments based on incomplete information; let them create the consensus that what is not understood is bad — and that is exactly what happens BTW. Those that can’t see through the fog of a pick like this, immediately question the pick and not their own lack of understanding or inability to grasp it in its fullness.

But we should try to crack this riddle. He’s our player, and we need to understand why our team traded up for him. With the good-to-very-good track record our FO and scouting dept has, lets give them the benefit of he doubt.

First listen to the rationales that were given for the action, and then to connect them with the self-scout (the assessment of where the team stood at the end of the season, which should be clear to everybody that it stunk and needed an infusion of play-makers). We heard Tangini state unequivocally that their method of planning for the draft includes the creation of models or simulations of potential outcomes and the scripts to follow if certain players were to fall into a certain range. Those actions are taken, to trade up, at about 4 picks before the place the team is expecting to trade up. In other words, when the team saw Keller fall, they started the motion to move up at @ pick 26.

But then, why was it this player that targeted so aggressively by our FO? And perhaps, what is it about their method that differs from the way we have grown accustomed to seeing thing play out, even though we have seen the FO trade up and down for two or so years now over and over on the first day?

The answer to the first question IMO has to do with the team’s evaluation of its own needs, the quality of the draft, and the expected outcome of the draft — who the team wants to get out of it. The Jets did a vigorous self-scout and found that we really had a vacuum of talent on the roster at the skill positions, or rather, we don’t have big play-makers that are matchup nightmares for defenses.

We heard that the team really coveted Darren McFadden, and wanted him to fall. He didn’t. He would have been the matchup nightmare we were looking for. The offensive play-maker that DC’s have to gameplan for. But who else in the draft would be such a player? There was no WR and no RB outside of DMC that fits that bill. Yes, talented players, some great talents, but none as versatile as Keller.

So that’s a key. Our FO –who BTW are not traditionalists by any means that bring in Australian rules players and Andrew Woolfolk types — had a non-traditional way of constructing their board this year. Gholston at the top was a no brainer when it occurred. But what to do after the massive drop off?

At this point, BPA becomes convoluted and begins to merge with need. If you analyze the draft, there were a lot of non-BPA picks if you follow a BPA model.

Our FO threw BPA out the window! In fact it can be argued that for this pick, and for other picks that the FO has nade this year and previously, they have pursued an Aggressive and Proactive Model not of just awaiting the Best Player Available when the pick comes, but of re-defining “availability” itself. They weren’t interested in waiting passively to take a BPA. They were interested in addressing a deliberate needs analysis; a certain type of player; and a specific player for which they actually scripted out actions for if he fell to a certain spot. That player was Keller.

Does that seem like the FO dropped the ball? They had specifically targeted this player because he fits what this team is trying to do and getting this particular player on the roster, even though he goes by the TE position (and there are important cost-saving economic reasons for this pick (TE) as well), even though the pick left the “traditional” expectations hanging and the national media scrambling to figure the riddle out. Jets fans of course also, didn’t understand this. How could Keller — a TE for crying out loud — be a BPA at 30? IN what distorted Jets fans recurring nightmare does this occur in?

The advantage is that you put this player on the field an flex him out and he has an immense matchup problem for the defense. The defense has to cover him with a Safety or a CB or a LB. Each one of these he has a specific advantage over. This player was specifically targeted to have an immediate impact on our offense — to create havoc for, put pressure on defensive secondaries and pressure run defenses. There is no WR or QB or any other skill position at 30 that could do this. In fact, I’d argue there was only one player in the draft besides Keller that had the performance and measureables that might predict such a state, and that player was the 4th pick.

So in my mind, the Jets draft board used variables that drastically differed from the standard ones that are used by other FOs, the media and fandom alike. It was regressive in that it addressed a need. But it was progressive in how it accomplished that.

The Jets don’t need a TE. The have Baker and just signed Franks. Need a TE? I don’t think so. And therefore it would be incorrect to say that the Jets drafted a TE. They did so only in name and economics.

What they set out to do was come out of this draft with some offensive firepower. That was essential to the team, and they created scripts for accomplishing that. One of those scripts was to draft McFadden. That didn’t happen. The second script was to get Keller.

The Jets didn’t draft for the traditional understanding of need: a certain position, like we say, “The Jets need a WR, or a NT.” They didn’t draft a positional need. They drafted a certain type of player — an explosive offensive playmaker that will cause matchup problems immediately and will have an impact on the defense’s orientation to the offense. Drafting a traditional WR – even the best would not do this for the Jets. They’d just put their CB on him which is probably an advantage for the defense.

And the jets went further than the law of BPA requires. They aggressively followed a proactive script in targeting a specific player, Dustin Keller, because they wanted him, and his skill set on the Jets offense.

He was the best playmaker on the board, a WR in a TE’s body, and that needs analysis the team did in the offseason dictated that this player — specifically — was clearly worth what was given up for him to have him on the team.

We’ll see. But I understand the rationale. The Jets threw the generic NFL FO handbook in the trash. Many out there are still scratching their heads. They don’t understand. It doesn’t fit their way of thinking. The Jets don’t care. The are building a team out of specifically targeted players, obviating the need to wait and be delivered a set in which the team will choose a BPA.

They define availability, and simply pluck their guys off the tree in exchange for what they see as great value. There should be a new name for what they do in these cases because it isn’t BPA strategy and it isn’t drafting for positional need.

It is a type of Proactive Modeling based on non-traditional aggressive targeting of specific players or types of players per needs analysis, with extensive use of scripting, the scripts of which advise exchanging value for moving around in a draft in order to accomplish the goals.

Watch what Keller will be able to do to defense over the nest few years. He’s been compared to Dallas Clark. You’d draft him at 30, right?

originally published here.